Social Security Must Be Reformed
Social Security must be reformed.
As the system is now constituted, it is not financially sustainable because it
pays out more than it takes in. If nothing is done, beneficiaries will face cuts
in their benefits as soon as 2033. What
can we do to put Social Security on a firm footing and meet the commitments we
have made?
We Do Not Duck Our Responsibilities
We have to find a way because we
are not people who would duck our responsibility to care for the old people
among us. We will not abandon the people who nurtured us and worked hard to
build the world in which we live. Some
people in our society can earn and save enough on their own to provide a
comfortable old age, but not everyone earns enough to do so, and it would be
wrong for us to abandon them in their time of need. So, we need Social
Security.
We Recognize that Social Security Benefits Are Earned
Moreover, we have a responsibility
to fix Social Security in a way that preserves the benefits that people have
worked for. We have to do this because Social Security benefits are earned. They are contractual.
They are not charitable contributions. A worker and his/her employers pay into
Social Security throughout his/her working life. An individual’s “account” may
be seen as a combination of a savings account (the worker’s share) and deferred
compensation (the employer’s share), and people
who have worked hard all of their lives have a right to the benefits they have earned. If we cannot pay those
benefits because we have allowed the system to fail, we will have cheated them,
and our American community cannot be based on cheating.
We Must Be Financially Realistic
On the other hand, we have to be
realistic because Social Security benefits are paid in the real world with real
money. We cannot promise benefits that we cannot pay, and we have to recognize that,
as things now stand, we will not be able to meet our commitments indefinitely.
To solve this problem, there are only two things we can do:
1.
We can increase the program’s revenue.
2.
We can modify the benefit formula to reduce the
program’s benefits.
A Possible Solution
There are many ways for us to
increase revenue or to reduce benefits, and to test out various possibilities,
I used “The
Reformer: an Interactive Tool to Fix Social Security,” which is on the web
site of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This interactive tool
allowed me to try various alternative “fixes” both individually and in
combination to see what it would take to fix Social Security in a way that was
financially realistic while honoring our responsibilities to be honest with our
workers and to care for the old people among us. The tool allowed me to try
increasing the Social Security tax or decreasing the benefits, and as I did so,
I had to face the moral question behind each choice? Who should pay higher
taxes to increase Social Security’s revenue?
Whose benefits should be decreased? Should everyone pay higher taxes, or
should the increases be concentrated on those with high incomes? Should
everyone’s benefits be reduced or only the benefits of the rich? Should we use
our money to pay benefits only to those who really need them, or should we pay
benefits to everyone who has earned them?
Here are choices that I made among
the alternatives that the web site gave me, and these choices would make Social
Security solvent for 75 years and beyond. I started with revenue
increases because our responsibility to meet our contractual commitments requires
us to avoid reducing earned benefits when we can.
Increases
in Social Security’s Revenue
Type of Revenue Increase
|
Percent
of the Shortfall Closed in the 75th Year
|
Increase the
payroll tax by 1.4% (The site allowed me to choose the amount. At the median
US income of about $50,000, a worker would pay an additional $700/year.)
|
50%
|
Subject all
wages to the payroll tax. (Today, only wages up $118,500 are taxed. The
cut-off point rises with inflation.)
|
71%
|
Cover
newly-hired state and local workers. (Today, state and local governments can
opt out of Social Security.)
|
6%
|
Increase the
taxation of benefits (Today only a portion of Social Security benefits are
taxed.)
|
8%
|
Diversify
the investments in the Trust Fund to increase returns (This means investing
in the stock market.)
|
19%
|
The first two items listed would
make Social Security solvent for the next 75 years, and it was tempting to stop
there, but with only these two changes, there would still be a gap after 75
years, which meant that Social Security would not be fully solvent. So, I added
the remaining three revenue-increasing items. Unfortunately, they still did not
fully close the funding gap beyond the 75th year. In order to make
the program fully solvent, I turned to modifications of the benefit formula. Here
are the choices I made.
Modifications
of the Benefit Formula
Type
of Modification
|
Percent
of the Shortfall Closed in the 75th Year
|
Slow initial
benefit growth for the top 20% of earners (This affects the formula by which
a person’s initial benefits are calculated.)
|
3%
|
Modify Cost
of Living Adjustments by indexing COLAs to the chained CPI
|
20%
|
Taken together, these revenue
increases and modifications of the benefit formula would completely close the
funding gap and would make Social Security safe indefinitely, but they are all
politically controversial. Radical
rightists are generally opposed to tax increases, while progressives generally
oppose reductions in benefits, but the truth is that, without using both
approaches, we cannot make Social Security fully solvent while meeting our
moral responsibilities to care for the old and to honor our contractual
commitments. The fact that our commitments are contractual
means that we have to be honest with our workers about what they will receive.
Promising benefits that we cannot pay would be equivalent to promising the
workers a salary that we could not pay. If we did that, we would be guilty of
fraud.
My first choice in benefit cuts was
in line with our current practice. Today, we “bend the curve” in benefit
calculations to avoid paying very large benefits to a few people and to be able
to pay a minimum benefit to the very poor. The need to bend the curve will
increase if we tax all wages because otherwise, a few people who earned very
high incomes during their working years, would receive outlandishly high
benefits. A more extreme version of this approach would be to “means test”
Social Security benefits and deny them entirely to people with retirement
incomes above a certain level, but doing that would change Social Security from
an earned benefit program to a welfare program, and that would be a mistake.
My second choice in benefit cuts
was to use the “chained CPI” to calculate annual cost-of-living increases. This
has recently been controversial, but it is the least bad of the alternatives
presented on the interactive website, and I could not make Social Security
fully solvent beyond the 75th year without some reduction in the
cost-of-living increases. So, I chose this one on the principle that we should
not make promises that we cannot keep. People need to know what they can depend
on and what they need to provide for themselves.
In making my choices for increasing
revenue and reducing benefits, I tried to apportion the costs fairly. The tax
increase of 1.4% would be shared by everyone, but collecting Social Security
taxes on all wages would affect only those with high incomes. On the benefit
side, slowing the increase in the initial benefit for the top 20% of earners
would affect only those with high incomes, but using the chained CPI would
affect everyone.
Diversifying the trust fund’s
investment portfolio was an easy choice because it caused no one to pay higher
taxes or to lose benefits, but it is politically controversial because it would
convert the Social Security Trust Fund into the largest stockholder in many
companies, and that would be a big change in the structure of our economy. However,
most state pension funds invest in the stock market, and they receive higher
returns than those received by the Social Security Trust Fund. Wisconsin’s
pension fund provides a successful example of an honest, well-managed, fully
funded application of this approach.
The choices I have listed represent
my attempt to put Social Security on a firm financial footing while recognizing
that we are a community that recognizes its responsibility to care for its
members who are old, and that we are a community that respects contractual
commitments and does not renege on its promises. I invite my readers to try
their own, alternative solutions.