Why Mr. Putin Will Get Away With Annexing the Crimea

Some Want to Blame Obama

Recent events in Ukraine and the Crimea have shown some of the limits of diplomacy, and we have heard from John McCain and others that at least a part of the fault for what has happened there lies with President Obama, who – they say – has emboldened Vladimir Putin by making America appear weak. I think that, before we jump into that debate, we should look back on some historical precedents.

What Has Happened in Similar Situations in the Past?

In 1956, the Hungarians rebelled against their Russian overlords. The Hungarians hoped that the U.S. would go to their aid because President Eisenhower had at least implied that we would do so. As everyone knows, we did not go to their aid, and the rebellion was crushed. Thousands of Hungarians fled their country into Austria, and many eventually settled here.

In 1962, the Russians tried to put ballistic missiles into Cuba. President Kennedy responded with a naval blockade, and for a short while, we were close to nuclear war. Finally, the Russians backed down and removed their missiles from the Island. We have continued to try to isolate Cuba, and the Russians have done nothing to help.

Why did we not aid the Hungarians in 1956, and why did the Russians back down in 1962? The answer is that we and the Russians have never wanted to go to war with each other, and each of us knows where the other’s limits are. For better or for worse, we live in a world where major powers have “spheres of influence.” The Russians have a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and we have one in Latin America under the Monroe Doctrine. Eisenhower knew in 1956 that if we had attempted to help the Hungarians militarily, we would have had to fight the Russians, and he knew that would have been a disaster. He knew that we had no vital interest in Hungary, and so we left the Hungarians to their fate.  Similarly, Khrushchev knew in 1962 that if he had not backed down, the U.S. would have gone to war in defense of what we regarded as our vital, national interest. He knew that such a war would have been a disaster. So, he backed down.

Why Mr. Putin Will Get Away With Annexing the Crimea

Now, the Russians have annexed the Crimea. Mr. Putin knows that Ukraine is powerless to resist, and he knows that neither the U. S. nor the countries of Western Europe has any vital interest in the Crimea. He knows that there will be lots of bellicose speeches.  There may even be some economic sanctions, but in the end, there will be no second Crimean War. Even Senator McCain has not suggested that we land troops to defend Ukrainian ownership of the Crimea.  The Russians will get away with annexing the Crimea.

None of this has anything to do with President Obama or his foreign policies. It has to do with geopolitical realities. Mr. Putin has not been emboldened because President Obama has made our country seem weak.  He has been emboldened by the fact that, for more than a hundred years, everyone has known that the Crimea is within the Russian sphere of influence. No one will challenge the Russians there.  Obama is not weaker than Eisenhower or Kennedy, but like them, he has to live in a world where major powers have spheres of influence. He knows, as Eisenhower knew, that we cannot really challenge the Russians in their sphere of influence unless we are truly prepared to go to war with them.