Republicans Face the Prospect of Enacting the Things that Trump Promised
Now that Trump has been elected, Republicans are going to have to face the reality of his policies, and the result may well destroy their party. Even if the party survives, the divisions within it will create opportunities for Democrats.
The coming division within the Republican Party is rooted in the fact that the party is an uneasy
coalition between the traditional, business Republicans and Trump’s radical
rightists. The business Republicans fund the party, and the radical rightists
provide millions of votes. The alliance has worked reasonably well because the business
Republicans have controlled the party’s real, policy agenda, while Trump’s
radical rightist agenda provided electoral propaganda. When elements of
the radical rightist agenda have actually been implemented, the political
results have not been so great for the Republicans.
The Abortion Issue: a Preview
Look, for example, at the abortion issue. As long as Roe v. Wade was in force, the issue worked well for the Republicans, but then Trump fulfilled his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and they did overturn it. The result was to activate millions of women in support of their right to choose whether or not to have abortions. In 2022, the Republicans lost congressional elections, and yesterday, several states where Trump won enacted laws to protect a woman’s right to choose. Republicans split over the issue, but the party did not break up because the business Republicans don't care about the abortion issue. Companies can make money whether or not a woman’s right to choose is protected.
This Time is Different: Tariffs
This time, Trump campaigned on issues that the business Republicans care about deeply, especially in the deeply Republican states of the Midwest and the Great Plains. One of those issues is tariffs. Trump promised to enact high tariffs on imported products. If he enacts the tariffs, the countries that lose exports to the United States will surely retaliate by putting tariffs on American goods including agricultural products.
Farmers in places like Iowa,
Missouri, Texas or South Dakota know that, and they will not want to lose the
profits that come from the export trade, which accounts for about 20% of American agricultural production. So, the farmers along with big, agricultural
companies like Cargill or Archer Daniels Midland will oppose the tariffs, and the
result will be a deep split in the Republican Party. The tariffs may never be
enacted because of Republican opposition. If they are enacted, they will damage
the economies of many, Republican states and perhaps drive some big financial
supporters of the Republican Party out of business. Whether or not the tariffs
are enacted, the Republican Party will be split.
This Time is Different: Deporting Immigrants
The idea of deporting undocumented immigrants will be similarly controversial within the Republican Party. Grocery stores, restaurants, gas stations and automobile dealers in communities that supported Trump will not want to lose a large share of their customers. Dairy farms, slaughterhouses, factories, hotels and construction companies will not want to lose a large part of their work force. (In my state of Wisconsin, most of the large dairy farms would go out of business without their undocumented workers.)
So, a policy of deporting millions of undocumented people
will be strongly opposed by influential Republicans in Republican states. If
Trump tries to implement the policy (and many think that he will), the party will lose the support of many of
its important financial backers. If he does not try to implement the policy,
the party will lose the support of an important part of its base. Either
way, there will be a crisis in the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Liz Cheney and
her allies will be waiting in the wings to take advantage of the crisis when it
comes. They will push to take back control of the party, and we will see the
effects of their effort in the election of 2026.
Opportunities for Democrats
The split in the Republican Party will create opportunities for Democrats, and local party leaders will be best able to see what they are. However, to take advantage of them, we Democrats will have to think carefully about how we frame the issues, and I will talk more about that in next week's post.
Our long-standing public and private social institutions will provide a LOT of commentaries about these issues; and the mid-term election campaigns will begin about only 18 months from now. It should be very interesting to watch and hear how the Republicans deal with all the conflicts!
ReplyDeleteThe split in the party has already begun. https://www.yahoo.com/news/3-ceos-preparing-raise-prices-100101439.html
ReplyDeleteThe big takeaway for me is that the base won’t leave no matter what. Their grasp on reality does’t extend to anything in the political arena. What we learned is that the base can not admit reality - when some of the policies get implemented that directly negatively impacts their lives even their pocket books they will turn to right wing media to learn that it is all the fault of the condescending radical leftists.
ReplyDeleteAn example - women voted in support of abortion AND for MAGA. That’s not a rational choice.
On immigration, all he has to do is make a show of it and then blame the left for any slow down.
The goal is chaos - keeping things chaotic such that a state of uncertainty and confusion exists - the foundation for fear and hate.
So, my concern is this split having any real impact is dependent upon the electorate holding someone accountable. The electorate has clearly spoken that they only hear what they want to hear and the only person/group that needs to be held accountable is the democrats. Reality no longer holds sway in American politics IMO.
Yeah, I know…
Brian, the base may not move, but a political party includes more than its base. Political campaigns cost money, and members of Congress cannot avoid listening to the people who provide it. So, an appeal to the interests of donors can have an effect. Trump's ability to get his programs through Congress depends on his ability to get the members of Congress to go along. Trump's majority in Congress is slim. He cannot afford to lose many of his supporters. Some of them will be forced to listen to influential residents of the communities that the members represent. So, what those influential people say matters. Remember that decisions are made by slim majorities. On another subject, you are wrong to say that it is irrational for a woman to vote against abortion and for MAGA. She may vote against abortion because she has strong religious or moral objections to it. Think, for example, of Amy Coney Barrett. We may think she is wrong, but we can hardly accuse her of being irrational. A woman may also vote for MAGA for reasons that have nothing to do with abortion. For example, she may work for an oil company and believe that environmental regulations imperil her job. People are not necessarily irrational just because we don't know what the reasons for their decisions are.
DeleteTo clarify - I said it was irrational to vote to support women's right to choose abortion and also for MAGA. Yes, I understand there are tradeoffs in any candidate choice. I was using abortion as one example - I could type the rest of the day citing the irrationality of MAGA voters with other examples. At some point the tradeoffs are so many that the choice can't make sense.
ReplyDeleteMy point was that the definition of reality has changed for the majority of the citizens of our country. Reality is whatever the base demands - rape is not rape, felony conviction is persecution, insurrection is protecting democracy.
I had thought that MAGA was a minority - that the base had a ceiling. I was wrong. The base grew and is growing. They will never accept accountability for Trump's lies to them - he will be able to do whatever the donors want with impunity. He then only needs Fox to broadcast how it's the evil depraved democrats fault. He will be able to tell donors "you're not getting everything all at once - I gotta throw the base a bone once in a while". Donors will be happy with that.
I don't foresee any split coming. A split would need some accountability - I don't think that can happen anymore.
Fortunately, this is an empirical question. We will see what happens. I the meantime, here is an indicator of what I think the future will bring. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-will-have-to-withdraw-matt-gaetz-nomination-former-gop-congressman/ar-AA1u5srO?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=a890b64fcefa40c79985789ed925ca11&ei=31
ReplyDeleteRe: anonymous - yes, it is empirical and I believe we will get an answer with this nomination for AG. R's will demand to see the House ethics report - they will say "all okey dokey with us" and make sure that it doesn't see the light of day. I don't watch Fox and don't have cable, and am willing to bet tonight is all about how the Dems are persecuting a good man.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the confirmation process will give us a first look at the divisions within the Republican Party, but it will not give us a definitive look. I say that because the nominations will not appear to cause nearly the same direct and immediate harm to the financial interests of influential Republicans as the issues discussed in this post. Some Republican legislators may go along with the nominations to avoid an intraparty fight and later dig in their heels on tariffs or deportations. Maybe, I am unrealistic. We'll see.
ReplyDelete