Trump's Tariffs Are An Attack on the American Middle Class

Tariffs Can Have Bad Results 

Trump's tariffs may ruin the middle class. He has proposed tariffs - he says - to rebuild our manufacturing base and create thousands of jobs for American workers, but the tariffs are more likely to have just the opposite result. Tariffs can sometimes create jobs, but to do so, they must be very carefully designed and implemented, because the results of tariffs are complex. Jobs may be created in the manufacture of products that complete directly with imports, but at the same time, jobs may be lost in industries that depend on exports because countries affected by the tariffs may retaliate by imposing tariffs on goods that they import from us. Thus, our exports may decline.

In addition, tariffs can create American jobs only in industries where our products can really compete with foreign products. For example, American workers might be benefitted by a tariff on certain kinds of computer chips, but American workers would not be benefitted by a tariff on Mexican mangoes or Colombian flowers because we cannot grow tropical fruits like mangoes, and we cannot grow flowers in winter. So, to create American jobs, tariffs must be very selective. They must focus on products that we can expect to produce on a large scale, and the tariffs must avoid destroying jobs in export sectors of our economy.

Tariffs As A Blunt Instrument Will Harm American Workers

However, Trump’s approach to tariffs is not selective because he wants to use tariffs and the threat of tariffs to bludgeon foreign countries into supporting his policies, as we saw in the last month's dispute with Colombia He threatened to put a tariff on Colombian exports including coffee and flowers. Such a tariff might benefit Brazil or Mexico, who produce those products, but it will do nothing for American workers.

We have also seen Trump's crude approach in his decision to put tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada to bludgeon them into clamping down on drugs coming to the United States. Mexico and Canada succeeded in getting him to put off for a month the imposition of the tariffs, but if he does ultimately impose them, no one thinks that they will create American jobs. The tariffs will only raise prices for Americans.

Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum Will Harm Middle Class Americans

More recently, Trump ordered a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum. Presumably, the tariff is intended to create American jobs in steel and aluminum production, and the tariff may well achieve that goal. However, by making steel and aluminum more expensive in the United States, the tariff will hurt industries that buy those products. Such industries include manufacturers of automobiles, airplanes, motorcycles and household appliances. The increase in the cost of steel and aluminum will raise the production costs for those manufacturers, and the result may be a loss of jobs in those industries. Indeed, the number of jobs lost may be greater than the number gained, as a study found in 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. That study found that the number of jobs lost was much greater than the number gained, and the prices of consumer products rose in the United States. 

It gets worse. Trump's proposed tariffs of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico mean that the automobile industry would be hit not only by increases in the cost of steel and aluminum but also by increases in the cost of automobile parts from Mexico.  Here is a comment on this subject from the CEO of Ford Motor Company:

There’s no question that tariffs at a 25 percent level from Canada and Mexico, if they’re protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and an adverse effect on the U.S. jobs. ... Let's be real honest: Long term, a 25% tariff across the Mexico and Canada borders would blow a hole in the U.S. industry that we've never seen. ... 

Frankly, it gives free rein to South Korean, Japanese and European companies that are bringing 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles into the U.S. that wouldn't be subject to those Mexican and Canadian tariffs. ... It would be one of the biggest windfalls for those companies ever.

Trump's Tariffs Will Hurt Us All

Trump's tariffs increase the prices of many consumer products will probably not increase the number of jobs in manufacturing in our country. It is true that tariffs may help domestic industries under some circumstances, but the tariffs must be very carefully designed, and we know that Trump is not a careful man. He is infantile and probably senile; he is vindictive and impulsive; he is too impatient to read reports; and he rarely listens to expert advice. We can be confident that any tariffs designed by him will do much more harm than good to the American middle class.