Trump Maintains Control by Driving Republican Opponents From the Party
Trump’s support is gradually narrowing because he demands absolute loyalty while at the same time hurting his supporters. Any Republican who opposes him at any point is subject to his revenge, and inevitably, such opposition does arise because each Senator or Representative represents a particular constituency with particular interests. For example, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, recently retired from the Senate rather than vote for Trump’s Big Beautiful bill. As a recent article on MSN said,
This is a pattern visible in the
departures of Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Mitt Romney,
Mike Gallagher, Justin Amash, Denver Riggleman, Mark Sanford, Will Hurd and any
Republican who “dared to deviate from Trump's whims.”
The same article tells us that
Already a Trump-aligned organization - MAGA Kentucky PAC - was launching a $1-million ad campaign against “traitor” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kent.), for having the gall to oppose Trump’s bill.
This week, yet another Republican congressman has decided to resign rather than support Trump. Mr. Bacon represents a district that went for Kamala Harris in 2024. So, his retirement provides an opportunity for a Democrat to win another seat in the House of Representatives.
Trump's Support Becomes Narrower
This strategy of driving people who don’t support Trump out
of the party maintains his rigid control of the party, but it also narrows the
range of his support. Meanwhile, his insistence on carrying out policies
that hurt the interests of important groups of Republicans cuts into the
party’s support from voters and campaign donors. An example is the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
A
recent poll tells us
A new poll from Gallup Friday shows
a steep drop among Republicans wanting immigration levels into the U.S.
decreased – falling from 88 percent in 2024 down to 48 percent in June. The
same survey showed an uptick in Republicans who see immigration as having a
positive effect on the U.S.
We can see the process of narrowing at work also in a
bipartisan decision in a Senate committee to reject the president’s
proposed cuts to the budget of NASA. It is easy to see why some Republican
senators might oppose cuts to programs that support a large number of well-paid
jobs in the senators’ states.
American companies are having a terrible time dealing with
the uncertainty and changeability of Trump’s tariff policies. A recent
New York Times article described the
problems that the management of Eagle Creek – a luggage manufacturer based in
Steamboat Springs, Colorado - is facing. The article says,
Three shipping containers with
about $240,000 worth of the manufacturer’s goods were set to arrive [from Indonesia]
at the Port of Los Angeles on July 30, just before the new tariffs are expected
to kick in. A delay of even a few days could result in additional fees of at
least $52,000 — and up to $75,000 if Mr. Trump followed through on imposing an
additional tariff of 10 percent on countries aligned with the policies of BRICS
nations, a group that includes Indonesia.
Although it wasn’t clear whether
the on-again, off-again tariffs that Mr. Trump had just unveiled would hold, or
whether he was bluffing, executives at Eagle Creek realized the company needed
to have enough cash on hand to pay the tariff bill.
Eagle Creek has to deal with this sort of uncertainty every day, and it costs the company a lot of money. So, imagine now what is likely to happen in Republican politics when Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger starts to talk about Republican alternatives to the CEO of Eagle Creek, to soybean farmers in Illinois and to vegetable growers in California.
Anti-Trump Republican Politicians Will Gain Support
The political ambitions of the anti-Trump Republican politicians will align with the economic interests of many Republican voters and campaign donors. Although, some voters are so committed to the MAGA vision that they will continue to support Trump, others who have voted Republican all of their lives will find that they do not have to leave their party to find candidates who support their interests, or they may turn to a third party. A few will vote for Democrats. We can see these divisions starting to form in a small community in Nebraska where a health center is scheduled to close. We should see more such divisions in the 2026 elections. Next year is not going to be dull.
I agree, support is narrowing - as is true of any cult, it has to. I think until the cult implodes or fades away when the orange one dies, those who want to vote R will only have a MAGA choice. EVERY R votes overwhelmingly in support of MAGA. As you point out, R reps either vote MAGA or they leave, there’s no in between in a cult.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see. I think that in congressional elections, a lot depends on local conditions. If Liz Cheney were to drive down from Cheyenne to Boulder to talk to the founder and CEO of Eagle Creek, what would she have to say? What could she persuade him to do? If Thom Tillis talked to the people in North Carolina who have funded his campaigns for years, what would he say? What would they do? What will farmers in Iowa who cannot pay their mortgages do? I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I know that Trump's control of Congress hinges on very, very slim majorities, and I know that the party in power generally loses seats in the midterm elections.
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