Sunday, March 23, 2014

We Blundered into Korea and Vietnam

We Weren't Trying to Take Over The World

I am writing this in response to a letter headlined “What have wars brought our nation?” that appeared in Appleton’s Post-Crescent on March 24, 2014. The letter is by Ed Hodges, and he is right to ask the question. He is right when he says that we have engaged in some amazingly stupid wars that have caused immense damage and brought us little in return, but he is wrong about the reasons why we did so. It is important for us to understand the reasons correctly if we are to learn from our experience.

The Korean War Was the Result of a Bad Deal at Yalta

Mr. Hodges’ first error concerns the Korean War. He says, “The gold stars of World War II were still in our windows when America invaded Korea.” This is false. We didn’t invade Korea. Korea had been a part of the Japanese Empire, and we occupied it as a part of defeating Japan. We allowed the USSR to occupy the northern half of the peninsula as a part of a deal that we made at Yalta to persuade the Russians to enter the war against Japan. Remember that when that deal was made, the atomic bombs had not yet been dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and we were facing the invasion of the Japanese home islands. It was estimated that as many as half a million Americans would die in that invasion. So, we made the deal, and the USSR occupied the northern half of  the Korean peninsula. Thus, the countries of North Korea and South Korea came to be.
In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea, and the United Nations went to its defense. The UN was able to do that because the USSR was boycotting the UN then and did not attend meetings of the Security Council. So, the Korean War (officially called the “Korean Conflict) came about not because of a “quest for world dominance” (Mr. Hodges words) but because of a bad deal that we made with the USSR. If we had occupied the whole Korean peninsula, there would have been no war. We won that war in the sense that we successfully turned back the North Korean attempt to take over the whole Korean peninsula. Unfortunately, we were not so successful in Vietnam.

The Debacle of Vietnam

Mr. Hodges says, “A handful of years [after the Korean War], we invaded Vietnam.”  This is also false. We did not invade Vietnam.  At the end of World War II, France tried to reestablish its control of what was then known as French Indo-China. We helped the French, but in 1954, they were driven out.  The terms of France’s withdrawal were settled at the Geneva Conference of that year.  A unified Vietnam was to hold elections to determine who was to rule.
The United States refused to accept the terms of the Geneva Agreement because it was obvious that Ho Chi Minh, the leader of the Vietnamese Communist Party would win. Instead, we supported a puppet government in South Vietnam. We did this extraordinarily stupid thing because these events occurred during the anti-communist hysteria of the early  nineteen fifties.

Today, it is hard to imagine the political climate of that time. In the wake of the communist victory in China in 1949, we undertook a witch hunt to determine who was responsible for “the loss of China” as if China had ever been ours to lose. A number of the State Department’s most experienced “Asia hands” were drummed out of the Foreign Service. Senator McCarthy conducted hearings to find “communist sympathizers” in the Pentagon. Any politician who opposed our policy in Vietnam was accused of being “soft on communism.”

So, we became the new colonial power in Vietnam.  Once we had done that, it became hard for us to back out, and the more resources we invested in supporting South Vietnam as an independent state, the harder it became for any president to say, in effect, that he and his predecessors had blundered. The colossal stupidity of our policy in Vietnam may be measured by the fact that when we finally withdrew in 1975, we got the same deal that we could have gotten for free in 1945, in 1954 or in 1965.
I get angry every time I think about the lives we wasted in Vietnam, but it is important to understand that we blundered into that war. We weren’t trying to take over the world, but we had no real policy in Southeast Asia except to contain communism. So, we entered a war in which we had no clearly defined objective that could be attained by military means, and a war that has no objective can never be won.

The Situation Today in Afghanistan

Today, we find ourselves in a similar situation in Afghanistan, and fortunately, our president understands the situation we are in. There are no military means by which we can make Afghanistan into a democratic opponent of Islamic extremism. Perhaps this time, we will withdraw from Afghanistan and allow that country to sink back into the obscurity, which it so richly merits.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Why Mr. Putin Will Get Away With Annexing the Crimea

Some Want to Blame Obama

Recent events in Ukraine and the Crimea have shown some of the limits of diplomacy, and we have heard from John McCain and others that at least a part of the fault for what has happened there lies with President Obama, who – they say – has emboldened Vladimir Putin by making America appear weak. I think that, before we jump into that debate, we should look back on some historical precedents.

What Has Happened in Similar Situations in the Past?

In 1956, the Hungarians rebelled against their Russian overlords. The Hungarians hoped that the U.S. would go to their aid because President Eisenhower had at least implied that we would do so. As everyone knows, we did not go to their aid, and the rebellion was crushed. Thousands of Hungarians fled their country into Austria, and many eventually settled here.
In 1962, the Russians tried to put ballistic missiles into Cuba. President Kennedy responded with a naval blockade, and for a short while, we were close to nuclear war. Finally, the Russians backed down and removed their missiles from the Island. We have continued to try to isolate Cuba, and the Russians have done nothing to help.

Why did we not aid the Hungarians in 1956, and why did the Russians back down in 1962? The answer is that we and the Russians have never wanted to go to war with each other, and each of us knows where the other’s limits are. For better or for worse, we live in a world where major powers have “spheres of influence.” The Russians have a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, and we have one in Latin America under the Monroe Doctrine. Eisenhower knew in 1956 that if we had attempted to help the Hungarians militarily, we would have had to fight the Russians, and he knew that would have been a disaster. He knew that we had no vital interest in Hungary, and so we left the Hungarians to their fate.  Similarly, Khrushchev knew in 1962 that if he had not backed down, the U.S. would have gone to war in defense of what we regarded as our vital, national interest. He knew that such a war would have been a disaster. So, he backed down.

Why Mr. Putin Will Get Away With Annexing the Crimea

Now, the Russians have annexed the Crimea. Mr. Putin knows that Ukraine is powerless to resist, and he knows that neither the U. S. nor the countries of Western Europe has any vital interest in the Crimea. He knows that there will be lots of bellicose speeches.  There may even be some economic sanctions, but in the end, there will be no second Crimean War. Even Senator McCain has not suggested that we land troops to defend Ukrainian ownership of the Crimea.  The Russians will get away with annexing the Crimea.
None of this has anything to do with President Obama or his foreign policies. It has to do with geopolitical realities. Mr. Putin has not been emboldened because President Obama has made our country seem weak.  He has been emboldened by the fact that, for more than a hundred years, everyone has known that the Crimea is within the Russian sphere of influence. No one will challenge the Russians there.  Obama is not weaker than Eisenhower or Kennedy, but like them, he has to live in a world where major powers have spheres of influence. He knows, as Eisenhower knew, that we cannot really challenge the Russians in their sphere of influence unless we are truly prepared to go to war with them.