Why is Trump's Foreign Policy So Erratic?

 An Erratic Foreign Policy

Why is Pres. Trump’s foreign policy so erratic? It is erratic because he is trying to find a way to do something that cannot be done. He is flailing around looking for a way to turn back the clock to restore American power and international status to what they were in the years after World War II, but he cannot do it. Trump was elected on a promise to “make American great again.” It was never entirely clear what that meant, but one of its elements was a promise to restore America’s international standing to what it was in the nineteen fifties and sixties when we dominated the world. That promise cannot be kept because, as I discussed in last week’s post, the conditions that made that domination possible have disappeared. There is no way for the United States to dominate today’s world as we did in the period after World War II.

He Is Looking For a Way to Do the Impossible

In his effort to restore the "greatness" of the United States, he keeps running into barriers that he cannot overcome. We can see this in his use of tariffs to try to force other nations to comply with his demands. He raises the tariffs and then lowers them; he imposes tariffs and then “pauses” their implementation. He obviously does not know what will work, but he keeps trying because he does not know that what he is trying to do cannot be done.  We can also see Trump's bewilderment in his conduct of the war with Iran. He entered the war without clearly defined goals and without consulting our allies. Now, he is stuck and is searching for a way to end the war in a way that Iran and the United States can agree on. 

He Gets in His Own Way

In addition, Trump’s self-concept as a "tough guy" gets in his way. As I suggested in another post on this blog, He presents himself as the ultimate tough guy, and he sees conflicts with other nations as occasions to demonstrate his toughness. So, he alienates even our country’s allies by bullying them.  We can see this in his conduct of the current war with Iran. He went to war without consulting our allies and then demanded that they help to open the Strait of Hormuz. When they refused, he insulted them. Now, they are looking for ways to assure their supplies of oil and gas even if the conflict does not end.

We can also see Trump’s bullying style in his approach to the control of the arctic. Instead of working with allies to strengthen the defense of the arctic region, he demanded control of Greenland, and he tried to bully Canada our most important arctic ally. The result is that Canada and the Nordic countries have forged an alliance maintain their control of the arctic against the United States, Russia and China. In this situation, Trump will no doubt look for a way to bully the alliance members into submission, but he will fail to find one.

He Will Continue to Be Erratic

In short, Trump’s foreign policy is erratic because he keeps flailing about looking for a way to accomplish the impossible task of turning back the clock. There is no way to restore the United States to the position of world domination that we had in the years after World War II. The conditions that made that domination possible no longer exist, and we must find a way to adjust to the world in which we are now living. Trump cannot see that. So, he will continue to flail about erratically.