Republicans Face the Prospect of Enacting the Things that Trump Promised
Now that Trump has been elected, Republicans are going to have to face the reality of his policies, and the result may well destroy their party. Even if the party survives, the divisions within it will create opportunities for Democrats.
The coming division within the Republican Party is rooted in the fact that the party is an uneasy
coalition between the traditional, business Republicans and Trump’s radical
rightists. The business Republicans fund the party, and the radical rightists
provide millions of votes. The alliance has worked reasonably well because the business
Republicans have controlled the party’s real, policy agenda, while Trump’s
radical rightist agenda provided electoral propaganda. When elements of
the radical rightist agenda have actually been implemented, the political
results have not been so great for the Republicans.
The Abortion Issue: a Preview
Look, for example, at the abortion issue. As long as Roe v. Wade was in force, the issue worked well for the Republicans, but then Trump fulfilled his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and they did overturn it. The result was to activate millions of women in support of their right to choose whether or not to have abortions. In 2022, the Republicans lost congressional elections, and yesterday, several states where Trump won enacted laws to protect a woman’s right to choose. Republicans split over the issue, but the party did not break up because the business Republicans don't care about the abortion issue. Companies can make money whether or not a woman’s right to choose is protected.
This Time is Different: Tariffs
This time, Trump campaigned on issues that the business Republicans care about deeply, especially in the deeply Republican states of the Midwest and the Great Plains. One of those issues is tariffs. Trump promised to enact high tariffs on imported products. If he enacts the tariffs, the countries that lose exports to the United States will surely retaliate by putting tariffs on American goods including agricultural products.
Farmers in places like Iowa,
Missouri, Texas or South Dakota know that, and they will not want to lose the
profits that come from the export trade, which accounts for about 20% of American agricultural production. So, the farmers along with big, agricultural
companies like Cargill or Archer Daniels Midland will oppose the tariffs, and the
result will be a deep split in the Republican Party. The tariffs may never be
enacted because of Republican opposition. If they are enacted, they will damage
the economies of many, Republican states and perhaps drive some big financial
supporters of the Republican Party out of business. Whether or not the tariffs
are enacted, the Republican Party will be split.
This Time is Different: Deporting Immigrants
The idea of deporting undocumented immigrants will be similarly controversial within the Republican Party. Grocery stores, restaurants, gas stations and automobile dealers in communities that supported Trump will not want to lose a large share of their customers. Dairy farms, slaughterhouses, factories, hotels and construction companies will not want to lose a large part of their work force. (In my state of Wisconsin, most of the large dairy farms would go out of business without their undocumented workers.)
So, a policy of deporting millions of undocumented people
will be strongly opposed by influential Republicans in Republican states. If
Trump tries to implement the policy (and many think that he will), the party will lose the support of many of
its important financial backers. If he does not try to implement the policy,
the party will lose the support of an important part of its base. Either
way, there will be a crisis in the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Liz Cheney and
her allies will be waiting in the wings to take advantage of the crisis when it
comes. They will push to take back control of the party, and we will see the
effects of their effort in the election of 2026.
Opportunities for Democrats
The split in the Republican Party will create opportunities for Democrats, and local party leaders will be best able to see what they are. However, to take advantage of them, we Democrats will have to think carefully about how we frame the issues, and I will talk more about that in next week's post.